Consumer spending this October was down -1.1% on last year. The positive result last month could not be sustained in this lacklustre economy.
This month’s spend was supported by our need-to-have categories of Groceries & Liquor, up +3.1% and Fuel & Automotive, up +0.6%. Our wants, in the form of eating out, new clothing and shoes, travelling, et al, were all in the red.
October to April is our peak tourism period, so it was of little surprise to see International card spending continue to exceed that of New Zealand cards, up 18.2% vs our -2.0%.
Key insights for October 2025
• Consumer spending dropped -1.1% this month when compared to October 2024, and Transactions dropped more, down -2.3%, indicating a continued attempt to curb spend.
• Groceries & Liquor and Fuel & Automotive saw the only growth this month, up +3.1% and +0.6% respectively.
• Internationals continue to shine their light in our darkness, up +18.2%. Key markets of growth included Korea (+45.4%), USA (+33.0%) and India (+18.6%).
• A storetype breakdown is detailed in the table below:
The Highs and Lows of October 2025
From school holidays to measles, the start of the cruise ship season to weather events, October was stuffed full of highs and lows.
Only 6 of the 17 regions saw spend rise. Otago Region came out tops at +2.0%, with the West Coast Region at its tail with -6.5%.
Otago
It was obvious where families flocked to over the Term 3 school holidays. Otago was the only region to see spend rise over that 2 week/16-day break, up +4.0%.
Whilst Queenstown seems an obvious destination with the ski season in its final swing, all the other council areas saw an increase in spend too. Their combined spend increase was textbook tourism with the large increases in Cafes, Restaurants, Bars & Takeaways (+9.8%), Accommodation (+8.8%), and Other Consumer Spending (+4.1%) which contains many tourism-related industry codes.
Cruise Ships
New Zealand’s cruise ship season officially started with the lone visit from Crown Princess on 23 September, but October is when we see their activity start to pick up.
Celebrity Edge and Celebrity Solstice started their trans-Tasman rinse-and-repeats around Tauranga-Auckland-Bay of Islands. Over the 18th and 19th of Oct when these ships visited the Bay of Islands, Far North District saw spend spike 16.6% (less Far North locals) over the same days last year. Auckland and Tauranga seemed less impacted, with spend only rising 0.2% in Auckland on the 17th and 18th of Oct; and dropping -1.1% for Tauranga on the 16th and 17th of Oct.
Carnival Splendor came a few days later starting in Wellington, southbound to Christchurch, Dunedin and Fiordland. These ports saw a distinct spike in visitor spend with Wellington up 11.4% on the 24th, Christchurch up 4.3% on the 25th, and Dunedin up 10.9% on the 26th.
Despite some usual demographic and behavioural differences between ship passengers, with Americans in the premium Celebrity ships preferring the security of ship-organised excursions; and the intrepid Aussies in onboard Carnival preferring to do it their own way, both spend in the country which is what we want.
Storms
And then there was the weather – an intense storm that brought unusually strong winds, causing much damage across the country between the 21st and 23rd of October.
The winds were so strong on the 21st, most of Wellington were urged to work from home. Spend was down -11.8% for the region that day.
In Canterbury, the destruction was widespread – from Mackenzie to Kaikoura, Hurunui to Waimakariri Region. The worst was when evacuation notices were issued on the 23rd, when the Waimakariri and Rakaia Rivers exceeded their one-in-10 years flood estimates. Spend in the region dropped -17.2% that day.
The West Coast was already trying to recover from previous flooding issues when these storms came to retard their efforts. The entire West Coast was without power for a few hours on the 23rd, and were also completely cut off by road after the damage closed all 3 passes to the rest of the South Island. Spend in the region dropped -26.5% that day.
Southland and Clutha combined were also significantly hit by the winds on the 23rd, with widespread damage across the region, affecting power supply and phone services, and closing off the Milford Road. Spend in Southland and Clutha combined was down -37.2% that day.
Summary
Looking at the regional performance across the country, we can observe that Otago was buoyed by the school holidays, the tailwind of the ski season and having come out relatively unscathed from the October storms. Canterbury blessedly came out on the positive side (+0.3%) with the storms not able to dampen its tourism growth. For the damage that was done to the region, Southland did well to see spend drop slightly (-1.8%) for the month. Wellington and the West Coast sadly tipped out on the wrong side of spend with the weather and potentially other macro issues playing a heavier hand.
We wait another month in hope of the Christmas hype and Black Friday sales making a difference to our spend economy.
